Most Read: Euro Outlook – Market Sentiment Signals for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY
The first quarter of 2024 wrote a chapter in market history. Relentless AI hype propelled tech-heavy indices to dizzying new heights, with giants like Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft riding the wave of investor euphoria.
Additionally, expectations regarding Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook buoyed risk assets. Although the Fed maintained its stance throughout the first quarter, policymakers indicated that they were “not far” from gaining greater confidence on the inflation outlook to start reducing borrowing costs, following one of the most aggressive tightening cycles in decades between 2022 and 2023.
Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 surged by 10.15%, closing at an all-time high of 5,254. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 registered significant gains, albeit at a slightly slower pace, climbing by 8.5%, building upon the 14% increase witnessed in the October-December period of 2023.
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Elsewhere, gold, which encountered challenges early in the year, embarked on a strong bullish reversal beginning in mid-February. This surge, partly driven by speculations that the FOMC would prioritize economic growth over inflation concerns and start easing its stance as soon as June, drove the precious metal to a historic peak exceeding $2,200 by late March.
US Equity Indices and Gold Q1 Performance
Source: TradingView
In the FX space, the U.S. dollar exhibited notable strength across its top peers, particularly against the Japanese yen. USD/JPY, for instance, soared more than 7% throughout the first quarter, edging tantalizingly close to reclaiming the psychological 152.00 level, the line in the sand for the Japanese government.
The yen couldn’t draw support from Bank of Japan’s move to abandon negative rates as the institution said that financial conditions would remain accommodative for the foreseeable future. Traders interpreted this dovish signal as indicative of a slow normalization cycle for the country, which would sustain its yield disadvantage relative to other economies.
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Looking ahead, we anticipate shifts in market dynamics driven by a global trend towards looser monetary policy, assuming no significant upside inflation surprises. This may provide support for risk assets, especially in the context of improving and stabilizing economic growth. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar could head lower, but its downside would be limited if other central banks end up adopting a more dovish outlook than the Fed.
The second quarter promises a whirlwind of market forces, setting the stage for exciting trading opportunities across currencies, commodities, and cryptos. Will the recent trends persist, or will new players emerge? For expert insights into the catalysts shaping Q2, dive into DailyFX’s comprehensive technical and fundamental forecasts. Your next winning trade awaits – unlock the potential!
If you’re looking for a broader perspective on U.S. equity indices, make sure to download our Q4 stock market trading guide. It’s your gateway to a wealth of ideas and indispensable insights.
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TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL FORECASTS FOR Q2
Australian Dollar Q2 Fundamental Forecast: Long AUD/USD Downtrend May Be Fading at Last
This article concentrates on the fundamental outlook for the Australian dollar, analyzing market catalysts and key drivers that are expected to exert significant influence on the currency’s dynamics in the second quarter.
Japanese Yen Q2 Technical Forecast: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY at Critical Juncture
This article explores the technical prospects of the Japanese yen for the second quarter across three key pairs: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY. The piece considers both price action dynamics and market sentiment for a comprehensive and holistic outlook.
British Pound Q2 Fundamental Outlook- Will the Bank of England Join the Q2 Rate Cutting Club?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee adopted a dovish stance at its last meeting, sparking debate about the possibility of policymakers bringing forward their first interest rate cut. Interest rate expectations could have a strong impact on the pound in Q2.
Equities Q2 Technical Outlook: Record Breaking Stocks Show no Signs of Slowing Down
After printing multiple all-time highs, US indices now trade at or around new highs with little sign of fatigue. Fibonacci projections provide an indication of where prices may be headed.
Crude Oil Q2 Fundamental Forecast – OPEC’s Cuts Will Keep Prices Underpinned
Crude oil prices may continue to rise in the second quarter of 2024, but they remain subject to the considerable short-term uncertainty that dogged them at the start of the year.
Cryptocurrencies Q2 Technical Forecast: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana. What’s Ahead?
In this article, we explore the Q2 technical outlook for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, analyzing sentiment and major price thresholds worth watching in the near term.
Gold Q2 Fundamental Forecast: In Neutral Waters – Neither Bullish nor Bearish
This article provides an in-depth analysis of the fundamental outlook for gold prices in the second quarter, examining critical market themes and key drivers that could play a pivotal role in shaping the precious metal’s trajectory.
Euro Q2 Technical Forecast: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, and EUR/JPY
EUR/USD has had a bumpy ride so far this year with the most actively traded FX pair starting the year just off a six-month high before sliding to a multi-week low in mid-February. See what Q2 has in store.
US Dollar Q2 Forecast: Dollar to Push Forward as Major Central Banks Eye Rate Cuts
The US dollar performed phenomenally in Q1 – something that is likely to continue but perhaps to a lesser degree now that growth is moderating, and rate cuts come into focus.
Fine-tune your trading skills and stay proactive in your approach. Request the EUR/USD forecast for an in-depth analysis of the euro’s fundamental and technical outlook!
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